Investment Advice

    The big era of the robot industry has arrived, we continue to recommend comprehensive leading enterprise robots, as well as the intelligent printing system leading enterprise Evergreen Co., Ltd. [3.74% capital research report], which is deeply deployed in the printing industry.

    reason

    American Google recently acquired 8 software-intensive robotics companies, including Japan's Schaft and American BostonDynamics. We believe that the intelligent, flexible, strong, and mobile robot built by Google will be applied in the manufacturing and logistics industries in the medium term. The ultimate goal is to become a general-purpose device like a computer and a human assistant. It is a cross-generation development, opening up the blue ocean market that has not yet been enlightened. Looking forward to the development prospects of China's robot industry, we believe that:

    1. The 10 billion-level industrial robot market has taken the lead and the 100 billion-level service robot market is expected to take over. The average annual growth rate of the industrial robot market is more than 20%, and the scale has exceeded 20 billion. As for the service robots deployed by Google, the domestic market is optimistic that it is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan, and this market is no longer out of reach, such as defense, logistics and other robots have achieved industrialization.

    2. In the short-to-medium term, the booming development of industrial robots stems from the spread of applications in various industries. In this process, local integrators who have the advantages of technology, capital, and engineers will have priority to benefit, because even international manufacturers with strong technical strength are not likely to be familiar with the processes of all industries. And robot body manufacturing companies are expected to achieve import substitution, because China is about to become the world's largest consumer market for industrial robots, but the share of independent brands is still less than 10%, and the replacement space is broad.

    3. In the long run, there are infinite possibilities in the field of service robots. a) Whether it is independent research and development in subdivided industries or general modular design, breakthroughs in any one field may mean that there are billions of market space. b) There is not much difference in the R & D start in this field among countries. China's "Chang'e 3" lunar rover is the most advanced service robot made in China and has certain advantages. c) At the time point, we think that the professional service robot market in industrial defense, logistics (AGV), surgery, agriculture and other industries may erupt earlier than home / personal service robots.

    Profit forecast and valuation

    It is estimated that the EPS of robots in 2013-14 will be 0.94 yuan and 1.21 yuan, corresponding to P / E of 52.1x and 40.4x, respectively. Maintain the recommended rating.

    It is estimated that Evergreen's EPS will be 1.08 and 1.32 yuan in 2013-14, corresponding to P / E of 29.1x and 23.6x, respectively. Maintain the recommended rating.

    risk

    1) High valuation of the sector has a callback pressure; 2) Intensified competition in the robot industry.